Shaw Wu, American Technology Research talks iPod nano: "In our checks with industry and channel sources, we believe distribution and retail have sourced and will continue to source significant channel fill of iPod nano in anticipation of strong holiday sales. While we are seeing this worldwide, it appears to be more pronounced in Japan and Europe where design and small form factors are more valued than capacity. In addition, it appears that white 4 GB iPod nano models have caught on partially due to customers realizing that scratches on the white models are less visible. As a result, we are raising our estimates. For the September quarter, we estimate about 1mm more iPod sell-in than we originally forecasted. We are now modeling 8 mm iPods, $3.9 billion in revenue, and $0.43 in EPS (versus our prior view of 7.1 mm iPods, $3.7 billion, and $0.39). For FY05, our new estimates are $14.2 billion and $1.51 (up from $14 billion and $1.46) and for FY06, $18.4 billion and $1.88 (up from $17.2 billion and $1.70). We are also raising our price target to $48 from $45. We reach $48 by applying a 20x multiple on our CY06 EPS of $1.93 and adding $9 in net cash."
Oh - and whether you are a file-sharer or a music business executive - don't steal music - we need the musicians. File sharers don't pay, execs try not to pay. Music is evolving and art is a state of mind.